Primary source, not a repackage
Every report, dashboard or forecast we produce starts from primary data: world trade flows, company reports and industry publications, cross-referenced into our own datasets and reviewed by people who know the sector.
Most "market reports" repackage numbers already published elsewhere. We use our own approach, combining top-down and bottom-up analysis.
Checked from both directions
Top-down, we work from primary trade and industry data — for coffee volumes, that means each country's production, exports and imports, sourced from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Eurostat, UN Comtrade, local coffee statistics and industry associations.
Bottom-up, markets and segments are verified from consumption, facilities and installed assets: average consumption and the number of facilities in each segment — coffee shops, restaurants, offices and more — combined with the installed base of coffee machines and prices. Everything is cross-checked against our internal database and other official sources such as national statistics, local press and company reports.
Qualitative signal adds the market perspective: interviews with industry experts, market leaders and company managers, conducted periodically at trade shows or by phone. Together, these inputs shape our read on trends, sectors and distribution flows.
Units stay consistent within each domain — coffee in tonnes, machines in units, market values in millions based on average sell-in price — and every series is refreshed as new source data comes in, not compiled once and left to age.
On the coffee side, for instance, consumption splits into Home and Out-of-Home (OOH), across four coffee types — whole bean, roasted & ground, portioned and instant/soluble. Home covers coffee drunk inside the home; OOH covers everything consumed away from it, including B2B and online sales meant for off-site use. OOH then splits into HORECA — hotels, restaurants, cafés, bakeries, caterers and canteens, where coffee is mostly drunk on site — and non-HORECA: offices (OCS), hospitals, universities, convenience stores, stations, airports and other high-traffic spots where people drink it standing or on the go.
From raw data to a number you can trust
Every step adds another layer of evidence.
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Top-Down
We start to elaborate primary trade and industry data — for coffee, that means production, exports and imports sourced from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Eurostat, UN Comtrade, local statistics and industry associations — not from someone else's summary of them.
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Bottom-Up
In parallel, we build markets and segments from the ground up: average consumption, the number of facilities in each segment, the installed base of machines and prices, reconciled into our own internal database and other official sources such as national statistics, local press and company reports.
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AI-Assisted Cross-Analysis
We compare top-down and bottom-up results to identify where the numbers converge — and where they don't. AI helps us cross-reference far more sources, far faster, to investigate discrepancies and surface correlations across segments, geographies and time that would otherwise take weeks to find.
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Expert Review
Every cross-checked dataset is reviewed against interviews with industry experts, market leaders and company managers — conducted periodically at trade shows or by phone — to catch false signals, resolve conflicts between sources and define the right competitive perimeter.
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Continuous Updates
Units stay consistent and series are revisited as new source data arrives, not compiled once and left to age. A report reflects the market as it stands, not as it stood years ago.
Have a specific question or market to explore?
We'll build the approach around your objective, bringing together the data, sources and perspectives needed to answer it.
Ask us